Weekly Fed Liquidity Report
Data week: 2026-05-22
Repair
Add risk gradually; require confirmation.
Fed Liquidity Regime Model
| Fed Liquidity Stock | Low | -0.36 |
| Fed Liquidity Flow | Rising | +1.55 |
| Flow Acceleration | Improving | +1.78 |
Fed Net Liquidity = Fed assets - TGA - RRP
Stock: z-score of 3-year log Fed Net Liquidity
Flow: z-score of 13-week change in Stock
Acceleration: z-score of 13-week change in 4W Fed Net Liquidity flow
Core Regime Path: 12M Monthly / MTD Weekly
Forward Liquidity Calendar
Jun 15
Estimated tax payment date
Receipts may lift TGA and pull liquidity from private sector.
Sep 15
Estimated tax payment date
Receipts may lift TGA and pull liquidity from private sector.
Signal Note
- Flow: stronger, +1.34 over 4W.
- Driver: net liquidity rose $42B, led by lower TGA.
- Stock: shallower, +1.30 over 4W.
- Assets: mixed 4W tape; leaders QQQ +8.1%, SPY +4.4%; laggards GLD -4.5%, BTC -2.5%.
Data Freshness
| Input | Latest | Age | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Assets | 2026-05-20 | 7d | OK |
| TGA | 2026-05-20 | 7d | OK |
| RRP | 2026-05-27 | 0d | OK |
| Assets | 2026-05-27 | 0d | OK |
Data Details
Fed Net Liquidity, components, and liquidity-sensitive assets
Regime Asset Scorecard
Current scenario: Low / Rising / Acceleration improving | Historical columns show forward returns after prior weeks in the same scenario.
| Asset | Now 4W | Now 13W | Avg Fwd 4W | Avg Fwd 13W | 13W Hit | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | +8.1% | +18.0% | +2.5% | +4.7% | 77% | 82 |
| IWM | +3.1% | +7.9% | +1.0% | -0.0% | 60% | 82 |
| EEM | +3.4% | +5.7% | +1.5% | +1.9% | 67% | 82 |
| GLD | -4.5% | -11.7% | +1.9% | +5.3% | 82% | 82 |
| BTC | -2.5% | +11.0% | +7.1% | +28.3% | 63% | 82 |
| HYG | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +1.1% | 84% | 82 |
| SPY | +4.4% | +8.4% | +1.7% | +2.5% | 74% | 82 |